Economics & Macro · Signal-Driven#264

Regional Fed Survey Nowcast

The regional Federal Reserve banks publish manufacturing and services surveys — Empire State, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas — throughout the month, and together they lead the national ISM figure that markets actually trade. Each one is a free, scheduled, partial preview of a number that moves prices when it lands weeks later. You build a weighted composite from the regionals as they arrive and trade the national threshold markets before the headline print.

What you need to run it

Automated ingestion of each regional survey on its own release schedule
Regression mapping the regional composite onto the national index it predicts
Weighting that reflects each region's historical predictive power, not its size

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where regional fed survey nowcast is the natural play:

Will ISM manufacturing come in above 50 next month?
Will the next services PMI show expansion?
Will US manufacturing contract for a third straight month?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionPatienceModel / quant

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketEconomics & Macro

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Patience, Model / quant

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.