Economics & Macro · Arbitrage#188

Fed-Funds Futures Implied-Path Import

The fed funds futures market prices the expected policy rate at every upcoming meeting, and billions of dollars of hedging keep it honest. Converting those contracts into a per-meeting cut or hike probability is arithmetic, not forecasting. Whenever Polymarket's rate-decision market disagrees with the futures-implied number by more than fees, you take the futures side — you are importing a far deeper market's consensus rather than forming a view on the economy.

What you need to run it

CME fed funds and SOFR futures data with the standard implied-probability conversion
Handling for meeting-date mechanics and mid-month settlement conventions
Automated comparison and alerting when the two venues diverge

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where fed-funds futures implied-path import is the natural play:

Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed hold rates steady through the end of 2026?
Will there be at least two rate cuts in 2027?

Capabilities this demands

Multi-venueData ingestionCustom code / API

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage

MarketEconomics & Macro

Requirements3

CapabilitiesMulti-venue, Data ingestion, Custom code / API

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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