Quantitative#088

Probability Term-Structure Curve Trading

When one event is offered at many thresholds (e.g. BTC above 90k, 100k, 110k by the same date), the implied probabilities should fall in a smooth, consistent order. You fit a proper probability distribution to the whole ladder and trade any rung that's priced inconsistently with the others — for instance where a higher threshold is somehow priced more likely than a lower one. The edge is that the crowd prices each rung in isolation without enforcing a coherent overall curve.

What you need to run it

Snapshot of all strike/date nodes in a ladder
Parametric distribution fit (lognormal/spline) to implied CDF
Detector for monotonicity/convexity violations
Multi-leg execution to lock the corrected curve

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where probability term-structure curve trading is the natural play:

Will BTC exceed $130k / $150k / $175k by Dec 31, 2026? (trade across the ladder)
Will ETH exceed $6k / $8k / $10k by Dec 31, 2026?
Will the Fed cut by 25 / 50 / 75bps+ cumulatively by Dec 2027?

Capabilities this demands

Model / quantCustom code / APIMulti-venueSignificant capital

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

Requirements4

CapabilitiesModel / quant, Custom code / API, Multi-venue, Significant capital

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related quantitative strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.