Quantitative#008

Polling Aggregator Edge (Elections)

You build your own polling average for an election, adjusting each poll for known pollster bias ('house effects'), how recent it is, and sample size, to get a cleaner probability than any single poll. You then trade whenever the Polymarket price drifts away from your model's number. The edge is having a sharper, faster-updating estimate of the race than the crowd, and acting each time a new poll moves your average but the market hasn't caught up.

What you need to run it

Ongoing ingestion of pollster-level data (538-style)
Model for house effects, trend line, and uncertainty
Rules for updating positions after each new poll drop

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where polling aggregator edge (elections) is the natural play:

Will Democrats win the 2026 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Will Republicans hold the 2026 Georgia governorship?
Will Democrats win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantManual research

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Manual research

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.