Economics & Macro · Signal-Driven#196

Central-Bank Speaker Calendar Drift

Between policy meetings, rate expectations get moved by scheduled speeches from voting members, and those appearances are published weeks ahead. Individual officials have consistent, measurable leanings, so a week loaded with hawkish speakers tends to drift expectations one way regardless of content. You build a speaker-weighted calendar, position ahead of clusters, and monitor the wires during each appearance for the specific phrases that historically moved pricing.

What you need to run it

Speaker calendar with a hawkish-dovish score per official based on their voting history
Live transcript or wire monitoring during each scheduled appearance
Position sizing that respects how quickly individual speech effects decay

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where central-bank speaker calendar drift is the natural play:

Will the Fed cut at the next meeting?
Will the ECB cut rates before December 2026?
Will the Bank of Japan raise rates in 2027?

Capabilities this demands

PatienceFeed ingestionDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketEconomics & Macro

Requirements3

CapabilitiesPatience, Feed ingestion, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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