Crypto · Quantitative#155

Token-Unlock Supply-Overhang Calendar

Most newer tokens release locked supply to teams and investors on a published vesting schedule, and a large unlock dumps sellable coins into the market on a known date. The size of the unlock relative to circulating supply and daily volume is the thing that matters — a 5% unlock into thin liquidity is a very different event from the same percentage into a deep book. You build the calendar ahead of time and position in price markets that straddle each unlock date.

What you need to run it

Maintained unlock calendar with unlock size as a share of float and of daily volume
Historical study of price behavior into and out of comparable unlocks
Entry timing rules, since the anticipation often moves price before the date itself

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where token-unlock supply-overhang calendar is the natural play:

Will Solana close above $200 on October 31, 2026?
Will any top-20 altcoin fall more than 30% in Q4 2026?
Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in September 2026?

Capabilities this demands

PatienceData ingestionModel / quant

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketCrypto

Requirements3

CapabilitiesPatience, Data ingestion, Model / quant

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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