Weather & Climate · Signal-Driven#181

Station-Level Observation Nowcast

Daily-high temperature markets resolve on a specific official station, and by early afternoon that station has already reported most of what will decide the outcome. If the observed temperature is 93°F at 2pm with three hours of heating left, the question is nearly settled while the market is still pricing the morning forecast. You poll the resolving station's observations directly and trade the residual uncertainty rather than the forecast.

What you need to run it

Direct polling of the exact resolving station (ASOS/METAR) at its reporting cadence
Diurnal heating curve model to project the remaining move to the daily peak
Verification that the market resolves on that station and not a regional average

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where station-level observation nowcast is the natural play:

Will the high in Chicago exceed 90°F today?
Will Phoenix hit 110°F today?
Will London's high stay below 20°C tomorrow?

Capabilities this demands

Feed ingestionPatienceCustom code / API

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketWeather & Climate

Requirements3

CapabilitiesFeed ingestion, Patience, Custom code / API

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related weather & climate strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.