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Markets on geomagnetic storms, visible aurora at low latitudes and satellite disruption resolve on published index thresholds, and those indices are forecast by space-weather agencies from solar observations with one to three days of lead time. Active regions are tracked as they rotate across the solar disk, which gives a rhythm to the risk. This is a small, technical niche with almost no informed participation and fully public data.
Markets on Polymarket where space-weather & solar-cycle event markets is the natural play: