Tech & AI · Arbitrage#287

Mutually-Exclusive First-To-Ship Basket

Markets asking which company ships something first — a model above a benchmark, a consumer device, a regulatory approval — form a set where exactly one entrant can win, so the prices must sum to one. In practice the famous names get bid up individually with no one checking the total, and the set routinely sums well above one. You sell the whole overpriced basket, which pays regardless of which company actually wins the race.

What you need to run it

Identification of genuinely exhaustive and exclusive entrant sets, including any 'none' outcome
Running sum of the field with alerting when the overround exceeds a threshold
Capital to short many legs at once and margin for the eventual winner

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where mutually-exclusive first-to-ship basket is the natural play:

Will OpenAI release the first model above this benchmark?
Will Google ship the first model above this benchmark?
Will Anthropic be first to reach the stated threshold?

Capabilities this demands

Significant capitalCustom code / APIRisk management

At a glance

CategoryArbitrage

MarketTech & AI

Requirements3

CapabilitiesSignificant capital, Custom code / API, Risk management

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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