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Weapons tests are usually preceded by public administrative traces: navigational warnings closing a maritime area, NOTAMs restricting airspace, and afterwards seismic readings that confirm an underground detonation within minutes. All three are open data. You monitor them together and trade test-and-launch markets ahead of official announcements, which can lag by hours or be denied entirely.
Markets on Polymarket where missile-test & airspace-notice detection is the natural play: