Geopolitics & World · Quantitative#221

Instability & Coup-Risk Index

Political scientists have built and validated models of coup and civil-conflict risk from a consistent set of inputs: recent coup history, GDP shocks, army pay arrears, leader tenure and neighborhood contagion. Those inputs are publicly available, and the resulting base rates are far more informative than headline-driven intuition. You maintain the index across countries and trade the instability markets that are priced on news cycles rather than structural risk.

What you need to run it

Country-level indicator panel covering economic, military and institutional risk factors
Model calibrated on the historical record of coups and irregular leader exits
Discipline about base rates, since these events are rare and easy to overprice after a headline

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where instability & coup-risk index is the natural play:

Will there be a coup attempt in any African country in 2027?
Will this government fall before the end of the year?
Will a state of emergency be declared before December 2026?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantDomain knowledge

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketGeopolitics & World

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Domain knowledge

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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