Politics & Elections · Quantitative#216

Forecast-Model Consensus Gap

Several public election models publish daily probabilities using different methods — polls-only, polls-plus-fundamentals, and pure fundamentals — and their disagreements are informative. Markets tend to anchor on whichever model is being quoted in the news that week. You build a weighted consensus, weighting each model by its historical calibration rather than its popularity, and trade whenever the market drifts outside the ensemble's range.

What you need to run it

Daily scraping of the public forecast models with a stored history of each
Calibration scoring of each model against past cycles to set the weights
Threshold rules so you trade only when the market leaves the ensemble band

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where forecast-model consensus gap is the natural play:

Will Democrats win the 2026 Senate majority?
Will Republicans win the presidency in 2028?
Will the governor's race in Wisconsin go to the incumbent?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionModel / quantManual research

At a glance

CategoryQuantitative

MarketPolitics & Elections

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Model / quant, Manual research

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related politics & elections strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.