Stocks & Companies · Market Making#266

Earnings-Window Quoting with a Listed-Option Hedge

Company markets cluster around earnings, which is exactly when quoting is most dangerous and most profitable. Stocks are the one category where the inventory you accumulate can be hedged with an instrument that pays off on the identical event: a listed option struck at the same level. You quote the spread into the earnings run-up and offset the resulting exposure in the option chain, then flatten before the release itself.

What you need to run it

Brokerage access to the listed option chain for each company you quote
Mapping from prediction-market exposure to the equivalent option position
Hard flatten rule before the earnings release, when the hedge gets expensive

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where earnings-window quoting with a listed-option hedge is the natural play:

Will Nvidia beat consensus EPS this quarter?
Will Tesla close above $400 on December 31, 2026?
Will Apple's quarterly revenue exceed $100 billion?

Capabilities this demands

Significant capitalMulti-venueCustom code / APIRisk management

At a glance

CategoryMarket Making

MarketStocks & Companies

Requirements3

CapabilitiesSignificant capital, Multi-venue, Custom code / API, Risk management

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.