Politics & Elections · Signal-Driven#213

Campaign-Finance Viability Signal

Quarterly FEC filings reveal cash on hand, burn rate and the small-donor base — the three numbers that determine whether a campaign can still advertise in the states that matter. A candidate with two months of runway is not a serious contender no matter how the polling reads. You parse the filings the day they post and trade nomination, primary and drop-out markets before the reporting cycle catches up.

What you need to run it

Automated FEC filing ingestion on each quarterly and pre-primary deadline
Burn-rate and runway modeling, including outside-group spending on the candidate's behalf
Ad-buy tracking as a real-time complement between filing deadlines

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where campaign-finance viability signal is the natural play:

Will this candidate still be in the race in February 2028?
Will the challenger win the primary?
Will the Senate candidate outspend the incumbent this quarter?

Capabilities this demands

Data ingestionPatienceManual research

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

MarketPolitics & Elections

Requirements3

CapabilitiesData ingestion, Patience, Manual research

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

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