Signal-Driven#077

Betting-Exchange Volume & Vig Leakage

Sharp betting exchanges like Betfair and Smarkets trade huge volume and price events faster and more accurately than Polymarket. You strip out their built-in margin (the 'vig') to get their true implied probability, then trade Polymarket whenever its price still lags the exchange's line on the same event. The edge is pure information leakage: the deeper, faster market moves first and Polymarket's order book catches up slowly.

What you need to run it

Betfair/Smarkets API for live odds + matched volume
Vig-removal and event-matching engine across venue taxonomies
Latency-aware execution to capture lag before convergence
Risk limits for venue-specific resolution-criteria mismatches

Where this applies

Markets on Polymarket where betting-exchange volume & vig leakage is the natural play:

Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 EPL title?
Will Spain win the 2026 World Cup?
Will the betting favorite win the next Formula 1 Grand Prix?

Capabilities this demands

Multi-venueCustom code / APILow latencyRisk management

At a glance

CategorySignal-Driven

Requirements4

CapabilitiesMulti-venue, Custom code / API, Low latency, Risk management

VenuePolymarket (CLOB, Polygon)

Build it

Related signal-driven strategies

This is documentation, not advice. Poly Research & Robotics publishes how these strategies work because the method should be checkable — not as a recommendation to trade them. See the full strategy database (297 strategies) or the data feeds directory.