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VidarX

A 32-day wallet review of an always-on automated crypto trader: 1,025,598 BUY tickets, 8 SELLs, $11.99M deployed, +$103,949 realized - and a conviction curve that suggests a real edge underneath the spread book.

Published Apr 19, 2026 Window Mar 15 - Apr 16, 2026 By PR&R Research Wallet 0x2d8b…260a
Total Volume
$11.99M
1,025,590 BUY / 8 SELL
Win Rate (resolved BUYs)
48.4%
496,635 W / 528,955 L
Realized P/L
+$103,949
100.0% of BUYs resolved
Active Days
32
of 33 in range
// 001 / Profile

Trader Profile

Always-on, single-vertical, 100% BUY. The wallet's footprint is a classical market-maker signature, layered with a directional conviction curve.

This wallet is an always-on automated trader with capital concentrated almost entirely in Crypto (100% of volume). Across the 32-day window it placed 1,025,598 trades (32,050/day) through 7,403 distinct markets spanning 7,402 events. Ticket mix is 100.00% BUY, only 8 SELL trades in the entire window - positions are overwhelmingly held to resolution.

Median ticket is $5.80; the P95 is $39 and the largest single fill in the window was $22,090. The top 5% of trades carry 23.0% of the capital - a power-law sizing profile where tiny probes map the book and a small handful of large fills express conviction. Intra-market consecutive-fill gap is 0s median with 93.0% of pairs firing in under ten seconds - a latency signature no human can sustain.

This is a classical market maker: 93.3% of markets see both sides bought and the median paired cost is $0.9917 - below the $1.00 no-arb line. 54.7% of paired markets close under $1.00 and 36.6% close under $0.97, which is real, repeatable spread capture. On top of that, the conviction curve adds a directional layer: 27.5% of both-sides markets tilt 3× or heavier to one outcome, and that dominant side wins 84.2% of the time. The high-conviction subset (dominance ≥ 2.0×, dominant leg only) closes at 212,477 trades, 81.2% win rate, and +$820,956 realized P/L (+22.52% ROI).

The unfiltered P/L of +$103,949 on $11.98M deployed (+0.87% ROI) understates the quality of the mechanism: the book pays itself through the spread, and the hedge-tax drag ($4.74M) is variance-reduction expense, not a loss leader. The directional layer on top scales the upside when conviction is strong.

Trading Style

ArchetypeClassical market maker · crypto-focused
Side Preference100.0% BUY · 0.0% SELL
Avg Trades / Active Day32,050
Execution StyleBurst bot - small probes, burst fills, no selling
Sweet-Spot Price Band$0.10-$0.20 (+3.52% ROI, 64,155 trades)
Peak Hours (UTC)05:00, 08:00, 17:00
Weak Hours (UTC)21:00, 04:00, 03:00
Best CategoryCrypto (+$125,538, +1.05%)
Weakest Category- (single-vertical book)
// 002 / Engineering Hypothesis

Technical Breakdown - Reverse-Engineering VidarX

An informed reconstruction of the underlying system based on observed timing, sizing, and coverage signatures - not a claim about the operator's actual stack.

This section is a forensic reconstruction of what the underlying system likely looks like based on observed trade behavior. It is an engineering hypothesis built from timing signatures, sizing distributions, market coverage, and execution latency - not a claim about the operator's actual infrastructure.

Market Discovery & Universe

  • 7,403 distinct condition IDs touched in 32 days across 7,402 event slugs - implies an automated market-discovery loop rather than a hand-curated watchlist.
  • Coverage profile (Crypto) is consistent with a polling worker that walks Polymarket's /markets and /events endpoints and accepts any market matching its target tag set.
  • Effectively no exits: only 8 SELL tickets out of 1,025,598 (0.001%). The lifecycle is open-then-hold-to-resolution; there is no meaningful exit engine, take-profit, or stop-loss.

Signal / Fair-Value Layer

  • Dominant-side win rate climbs monotonically with imbalance - 57.9% at 1.0-1.5×, 79.5% at 2.0-3.0×, 84.2% at 3.0×+. This calibration curve is the signature of an external probability estimate, not random noise.
  • The most plausible fair-value source is a sportsbook consensus feed (Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange, or an aggregator like OddsPortal/OddsJam) - the coverage footprint matches exactly. The bot compares the implied probability from that feed to the CLOB mid-price and fires on deviations.
  • The 0.40-0.50 entry band is the only price zone where the book is toxic (+0.82% ROI). This is consistent with a fair-value estimator that is well-calibrated outside the coin-flip zone but adds noise around 50/50 - a classic failure mode of models trained on directional outcomes.

Order Router & Latency

  • Median gap between consecutive fills on the same (condition_id, outcome): 0s. 93.0% under 10s, 99.6% under 60s. Sub-10s bursts imply parallel HTTP workers or an async queue posting directly against the CLOB REST endpoint.
  • Sustained throughput of 32,050 trades/day - roughly 16 trades/minute averaged across 24 hours, with peaks exceeding 30/min during the 20:00 UTC European finish window.
  • No evidence of on-chain MEV or private relay usage - order timestamps are consistent with Polymarket's public CLOB pathway (off-chain matching, on-chain settlement via Polygon).

Sizing & Risk Controls

  • Median ticket $5.80, mean $12, P95 $39, P99 $57, max $22,090. The top 5% of trades carry 23.0% of capital - a textbook edge-proportional (Kelly-adjacent) sizer with a hard ceiling.
  • Per-market aggregate ceiling appears near $28.9K (largest single-market book in window: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?). No position breaches that ceiling, suggesting a hard cap on per-market exposure.
  • The small-probe / large-fill bimodality (lots of $5-$20 tickets alongside occasional $50K fills) is consistent with a sizer that tests book depth with micro-orders before committing the full notional.

Hedge / Pairing Logic

  • Both-sides rate 93.3% of 7,403 markets with a median second-side lag of 10 seconds - essentially atomic pairing. This is the execution footprint of a classical simultaneous market maker, not opportunistic hedging.
  • Mean paired cost is $0.9910 - below the $1.00 no-arb line, so the paired leg itself is positive-EV. The hedge isn't just variance reduction; it's a profit center. 55% of paired markets close under $1.00 and 37% close under $0.97, evidence of consistent book-edge sourcing.
  • Structural hedge-tax outflow ($4.74M on the eventual losing side across the window) is offset against +$58,509 of theoretical spread P/L - net of each other, the pair structure explains most of the variance reduction this wallet achieves.

Likely Stack (inferred)

  • Language / runtime: Node.js or Python async (asyncio / aiohttp). The sub-10s parallel bursts and 24/7 uptime favor an event-loop runtime over synchronous workers.
  • Data plane: Polymarket CLOB REST (clob.polymarket.com) for order placement, Gamma subgraph or data-api for market metadata, plus an external odds feed for fair value.
  • Scheduler: a rolling poll across all active sports markets every 1-10 seconds, filtered by sport and minimum liquidity. No evidence of WebSocket streaming - the gap histogram is too coarse.
  • Wallet infra: single EOA signing through a persistent nonce manager. No contract wallet, no batching - each trade is an independent order. Likely co-located in a low-latency region (AWS us-east-1 or a Polygon-adjacent host).
  • Persistence: position state tracked locally; no evidence of PnL management on-chain. Losses accrue silently to resolution.
In one sentence: this looks like an always-on fair-value comparator that polls Polymarket markets, compares them to an external sports-odds feed, sizes proportionally to the gap, fires small probes then large fills through parallel HTTP workers, and opportunistically hedges the other side to bank the spread where the book allows it. The edge lives in the fair-value model at 3×+ imbalance; the hedge leg is a variance dampener, not a profit source.
// 003 / Verticals

Performance by Category

Classified by slug + market keywords. Crypto is the load-bearing book (1,025,587 trades, $11.96M, 100% of total capital).

CategoryTradesVolumeWin RateROIAssessment
Crypto1,025,587$11.96M48.4%+1.05%Modest +$125,538
Other11$31.2K66.7%-88.49%Thin Sample -$21,589

The book is monolithic - virtually all activity lives in a single vertical (Crypto). Efficiency is consistent across the footprint at +1.05% ROI, +$125,538 absolute. There is no cross-category comparison to make - this is a single-vertical specialist.

// 004 / Cadence

Weekly Activity

Range spans ISO weeks 11-14. Daily volatility is high: single-day P/L swings from -$254K to +$303K.

Wk 11 · 2026-03-15→2026-03-15
+$3,478
58,471 trades · 45.3% WR
Wk 12 · 2026-03-16→2026-03-22
+$35,148
243,484 trades · 47.3% WR
Wk 13 · 2026-03-23→2026-03-29
+$48,612
269,273 trades · 48.7% WR
Wk 14 · 2026-03-30→2026-04-05
+$10,341
228,688 trades · 49.1% WR
Wk 15 · 2026-04-06→2026-04-11
-$1,857
158,597 trades · 49.6% WR
Wk 16 · 2026-04-13→2026-04-16
+$8,227
67,077 trades · 49.0% WR
// 005 / Figures

Weekly Performance

Resolved-BUY P/L by ISO week. 6 weeks cover 32 active days; cumulative P/L closes at +$103,949.

// 006 / Ledger

Week-by-Week Breakdown

Per-week ledger of trades, wins, losses, ROI and the running cumulative P/L line.

WeekDatesTradesWLWin %P/LCumul
W112026-03-15→2026-03-1558,47126,47431,99745.3%+$3,478+$3,478
W122026-03-16→2026-03-22243,484115,275128,20947.3%+$35,148+$38,626
W132026-03-23→2026-03-29269,273131,003138,27048.7%+$48,612+$87,238
W142026-03-30→2026-04-05228,688112,393116,29549.1%+$10,341+$97,579
W152026-04-06→2026-04-11158,59778,64679,95149.6%-$1,857+$95,723
W162026-04-13→2026-04-1667,07732,84434,23349.0%+$8,227+$103,949
Total 1,025,590 496,635 528,955 48.4% +$103,949 +$103,949
// 007 / Figures

Price Range & Hourly Analysis

Win-rate / ROI by entry-price decile (left) and net P/L by hour of day in UTC (right).

// 008 / Decile breakdown

Win Rate by Entry Price

Per-decile win rate and ROI. The book is profitable at the tails (deep OTM and near resolution) and roughly break-even in the middle.

Price RangeTradesWinsWin %Assessment
$0.00-$0.1022,0661,4546.6%Profitable +3.41% ROI
$0.10-$0.2064,1559,74115.2%Profitable +3.52% ROI
$0.20-$0.30110,12427,99425.4%Break-even +1.79% ROI
$0.30-$0.40179,05163,21235.3%Break-even +1.16% ROI
$0.40-$0.50178,79877,54443.4%Break-even +0.82% ROI
$0.50-$0.60142,77780,26556.2%Break-even +0.36% ROI
$0.60-$0.70166,036107,51664.8%Break-even -0.08% ROI
$0.70-$0.80101,43675,59674.5%Break-even +0.82% ROI
$0.80-$0.9050,89443,64785.8%Profitable +2.49% ROI
$0.90-$1.0010,2539,66694.3%Profitable +2.57% ROI
// 009 / Consistency

Rolling 15-Day Consistency

Per-day rolling 15-day and 7-day P/L. The 15-day curve is green on every observation; the 7-day curve dips briefly negative late in the window.

33 of 33 rolling 15-day windows (100%) and 30 of 33 rolling 7-day windows close green. The 15-day window peaks at +$87,238 and bottoms at +$3,478 - the spread between peak and trough tells you how consistent the edge is across the observation. A consistently green rolling curve implies a durable signal; a curve that dips into the red on any window indicates fragility that a replicator would want to stress-test before scaling.

// 010 / Concentration

Top Markets by Volume

The book is broad: even the largest single market is a fraction of one percent of total capital deployed.

MarketTradesVolume
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?9$28.9K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET498$13.0K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET513$12.9K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET574$12.3K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET556$12.1K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET479$11.6K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET459$11.5K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET414$11.1K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET874$11.0K
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET884$10.7K

Top 10 markets account for $135.1K of volume (1.1% of book). Top 10 carry only 1.1% of book - capital is distributed very broadly across the 7,403-market footprint. The single-biggest line - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? - resolved to -$22,090 P/L on 9 fills.

// 011 / Synthesis

Key Findings

Three load-bearing observations and a one-paragraph summary tying the wallet's mechanism back to its measured P/L.

The Conviction Curve Is the Edge

Dominance ratio is the dominant story. Of 6,905 both-sides markets, 1,900 (27.5%) tilt 3× or more to one outcome, and that side wins 84.2% of the time - compared to 57.9% at 1.0-1.5×. Stripping to just the dominant leg on conviction bets (≥2.0×) yields 81.2% WR, +22.52% ROI, and +$820,956 P/L - many multiples of the unfiltered book. The signal is real.

Concentrated Capital, Specific Weak Zones

Capital is concentrated - Crypto is 100% of volume. The highest-ROI vertical with meaningful sample is Crypto at +1.05%. The worst-performing category is Crypto at +$125,538 (+1.05% ROI); the worst-performing price band is $0.60-$0.70 at -$2,164. Hours 03:00, 13:00, 18:00, 23:00 UTC are the weakest four-hour footprint (+$11,740 combined) - the book should be paused or sized down in that window.

Genuine Spread Capture

This wallet is a true market maker. Mean paired cost is $0.9910 - below the $1.00 no-arb line - so the paired leg itself is positive-EV. Spread P/L contributes +$58,509 of theoretical risk-free yield, while the $4.74M in hedge-tax outflow is the cost of variance reduction, not a true drag. Combined with the dominant-side directional accuracy at 3×+ (84.2% WR), the structure is self-funding: spread capture pays the desk to show up, and conviction sizing scales the upside when the signal is strong. This is the textbook shape of a profitable automated market maker.

Summary: A 24/7 automated trader that opened 1,025,598 BUY tickets across 7,403 markets in 32 days with only 8 SELL trades. Structurally it presents as a true market maker: 93% both-sides participation, $5.80 median ticket, 93% of consecutive fills under 10 seconds, and median same-market gap of 0s - and the paired cost of $0.9910 is below fair, so the spread leg is genuinely positive-EV. The conviction curve is unambiguous: dominant side win rate climbs from 58% at 1.0-1.5× to 84% at 3.0×+, and the dominant-leg-only subset realizes +$820,956 at +22.52% ROI. The unfiltered book closes +$103,949 at +0.87% ROI on $12.0M deployed. A replicator should focus on the high-conviction leg, enforce a paired-cost ceiling below $1.00, and bias sizing toward the price bands and hours where the book's historical ROI is cleanest.

// 012 / Disclaimer

Analytical Scope & Limitations

The findings in this report are produced entirely from publicly observable on-chain and off-chain trade data sourced through the Polymarket data API and CLOB. They represent a data-driven reconstruction - an informed hypothesis about the trader's strategy, infrastructure, and edge - not a verified account of the operator's actual systems, intentions, or internal models.

The "Technical Breakdown" and "Key Findings" sections in particular are inferential. Plausible alternative architectures could produce similar trade footprints, and this analysis does not claim to have identified the specific one in use. Numerical results (win rates, P/L, ROI, dominance buckets) are deterministic for this observation window; interpretive claims (archetype, sizing model, hedge logic, stack composition) are best-guess reconstructions based on statistical patterns.

Readers should treat this report as analytical commentary rather than as a factual disclosure. Past performance does not indicate future results, historical patterns may not persist, and any attempt to replicate or trade alongside the documented behavior is done at the reader's own risk. Poly Research & Robotics makes no representation that these findings are complete, accurate in every respect, or predictive of the trader's ongoing activity.

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